Contenders Playoff Predictions

October 05th
written by Eden

con_playoffsWelcome back after our break! This weekend will be exciting and I’ll lead off with our predictions for placements at the end of the season. Here is our aggregate prediction for North America and Europe.

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In both regions, there is plenty of uncertainty moving into this playoff weekend with EnVyUs and Misfits being favorites going into the weekend. Some may think this is locked up, but 39% and 42% events are not that uncommon! Remember, that fivethirtyeight.com had Trump with 28.5% of winning on election day last year. We predict there is a better than 50-50 chance that one of our favorites will fail to make first place, which should make this weekend very interesting to watch.

Reviewing Regular Season Performances

With the entire regular season over of Contenders in Europe and North America, we can review performance of our analysts in predicting matches. I am introducing a new metric of evaluating performance besides weight since weight is inherently sample size dependent, although a good measure of standing. As games increase, the gap in weight grows farther apart without a change in relative performance week to week.

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With this new metric, it clarifies our season into 3 packs of analysts. Our top performers in the regular season were Barroi and Sideshow with very similar performance. Following them, there is a large pack including Yiska, myself, SmeG and Volamel. Behind us are Moirai and YungBoop who are still well ahead of Coin Flip who has had a very very poor season.

This Weekend’s Predictions

This weekend has something special in it for our predictions. Since we will not be updating our predictions after the semi-finals, we are making predictions conditioned upon who wins their first matches. Predictions for match ups that do not occur will not be scored. It is important to consider what information we will have gained by a team being in the next round of play. Our predictions for FNRGFE vs Faze are NOT what we think of the matchup, but rather what we think of the matchup if FNRGFE manages to beat EnVyUs in the semi-finals.

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