What Have We Seen so Far Fantasywise?

January 13th
written by KHitt
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Special to Winston’s Lab by BDOG

Looking for some information on how to optimize your roster for the coming weeks?

Each team has finished their first match in OWL and we’re halfway through the first week, while it is a limited view we have some statistics to work with and I’m going to put them to use in determining the best way to fix your lineup. So, without further ado, let’s get started with some stats, below I’ve listed the top 5 players in each category, and each teams overall contribution to point totals.

TOP 5 DPS

  1. Fleta-173
  2. Carpe-144
  3. Munchkin-134
  4. Shadowburn-130
  5. Jake-127

TOP 5 FLEX

  1. Poko-101
  2. Envy-97
  3. Zunba-88
  4. Fury/Nevix-56
  5. Manneten-55

TOP 5 TANKS

  1. FaTE-82
  2. Miro/Bischu-77
  3. Gesture-55
  4. Muma-49
  5. MekO-48

TOP 5 SUPPORT

  1. Bdosin-58
  2. Ryujehong/Shaz-45
  3. Harryhook-43
  4. uNKOE-29
  5. Boombox-25

Team Stat Totals

  1. Seoul Dynasty- 531
    2. Los Angeles Valiant- 460
    3. Los Angeles Gladiators- 396
    4. Philadelphia Fusion- 394
    5. London Spitfire- 352
    6. Dallas Fuel- 338
    7. Houston Outlaws- 334
    8. New York Excelsior- 325
    9. San Francisco Shock- 277
    10. Boston Uprising- 177
    11. Florida Mayhem- 153
    12. Shangai Dragons- 35

Players That Haven’t Had a Chance to Shine

There’s no doubt that the first game is troubling for Shanghai, Boston and Florida aren’t looking too hot either. Coming in at 6 and 7 despite losing their games, Dallas and Houston outscored a winning team, New York. I’d estimate that in the outlaws case they’re performing at a level near their best, and you can expect players on their team to continue to produce at the level they are. In the Fuel’s case I’d be expecting much more from them going forward, losing to Seoul 2-1, they’re likely to win more of their matches as they get paired against teams other than Seoul and their players are much more likely to produce high numbers in winning engagements. If you have players from Shanghai, Florida, or Boston, it might be a good idea to look elsewhere for your fantasy roster, and if you’re sitting on Players from LA Valiant, or Seoul Dynasty, you’re probably looking down at the rest of your league. The Philadelphia Fusion despite sitting at 4th place have not only the highest scoring DPS duo in ShaDowBurn and Carpe but they’ve also got the highest scoring Flex player, Poko.

No Points in Healing

The first thing that comes to my attention is how poorly support and tank players perform in this fantasy format, the highest performing tank (FaTE) just manages to match the #18 DPS/Flex players at 82 points earned. In second place a tie  between Miro and bischu at 77 points puts them below over 20 DPS players, some of which did not play in every stage of the series. Support is even more humbling a category to draft for, with only one support player over 50 points (Bdosin) and nearly 30 players preceding him in points, the situation only gets worse from there, the number 5 support sitting at 25 points (Boombox).

So what does this mean for your draft? Well, if you’ve got extra support players on your bench your options are pretty limited, as the value of a support player is so low that it is beyond a shadow of a doubt not worth starting 2. The best use of a spare support player is to replace with an unsigned DPS player, but with only 39 DPS players and a requirement of rostering 2 supports, 2 tanks, and 2 DPS players, there simply isn’t enough space in a full fantasy league with 10 teams to roster 6 dps players on every team, so how do we fill that gap? Look no further than the Flex category.

Flexing on Your Fantasy League

Flex players are represented pretty well within the top point scorers, 3 of the top 20, and outperforming support players with 6 of the 18 flex players scoring greater than or equal to the best support player, and 3 of the 18 greater than or equal to the best tank player. There remains an additional 6 of 18 flex players that haven’t seen play time, but the overwhelming trend here is that a flex player remains a better investment than support over half the time, and a better investment than a tank  player 33% of the time. This is likely to improve as well, players like seagull(34p) and Pine(40P) saw very little play, for pine it was just one map, if you extrapolate pine’s performance across the 4 maps that the Excelsior played you’d be looking at a 240 point player.

By far the best example of this is Poko, scoring 101 points on 5 maps, he is on the cusp of top 10 as the 12th player overall for points scored, outpreforming FaTE by 18 points. An argument could be made those 18 points were earned on the 5th map that the Fusion played but that is not the case as FaTE comes in at 15.06 pts/10 minutes and Poko comes in at 17.56 pts/10 minutes. Time will tell if Poko can maintain the performance but as of today Poko is the #1 flex player. Similarly the #2 flex player Envy of the LA Valiant comes in at 97 points after only 4 maps, and 17.82 pts/10 minutes which may make him a better long term investment than Poko turns out to be. Which brings us to the looming issue of some flex players.

The looming issue with drafting players such as Pine or seagull is not knowing if they’ll be played. The starting lineup of each team may or may not be announced ahead of the game, even less likely that it’s announced far enough in advance for you to adjust your starters. Teams with large rosters may opt to sub in different players than the ones you’re fantasy roster is working with, making them a gamble for consistent points.

Building your Starting roster

If you’re like me you attempted to draft players that are good at what they do, Ryujehong is without a doubt one of the best support players in the game, but in fantasy that doesn’t seem to matter much. xQc is an inspiring tank player, but the Dallas Fuel opted to start with a different line-up and didn’t sub him in much. I foolishly was unaware that IDDQD would be sitting out this week because he has been sick and missing practice. Pine while giving a stellar performance on Illios didn’t quite pad my score as much as I had hoped. So how do I fix it? Well let’s get down to it.

The optimal starting team is 1 Tank, 1 Support and 4 DPS, if you have the bench to build a team like this, it is definitely worth running it. The highest possible point total with this layout is 721 with a roster of Fleta, Carpe, munchkin, ShaDowBurn, FaTE, and Bdosin. Clearly you won’t have those players but the upper limit of what you can achieve is much higher than if you run a more balanced 2-2-2 starting line-up which caps at 579 with the best two players in each category. If your roster is looking weak what should you do next? Well hopefully there are some hidden gems in your unsigned player pool or you can work out a deal for some talent that may appear weaker than it is. Don’t forget that if you don’t have the most impressive looking DPS or tank pool, try to supplement with Flex players.

Players to look out for

With around 30 players in the league that haven’t seen play there is a lot to look forward to. If some of your roster hasn’t scored any points yet don’t worry, it could just be that teams are running certain lineups against  certain teams. I’d stay my hand on trading off anyone with goose eggs on the standings, but if you made some mistakes and happened to draft anyone from the shanghai dragons there are still some players you might be able to acquire to soften the blow. Tank players like Cocco, KuKi, and Fissure have all proven that they’re forces to be reckoned with. DPS player sinatraa has yet to turn 18 and won’t be able to play until may, but given that the season is far from over acquiring him early and keeping your bench warm may very well pay off later in the season. IDDQD has been sick and missed practice so he won’t be seeing play until next week at the earliest. Seoul Dynasty and London Spitfire have 11 and 12 players at their disposal, respectively, and are certainly going to be swapping them in and out as the season draws on. Whereas the Florida Mayhem have only 6 players meaning that a florida pick is a consistent one, albeit maybe not the best, but time will tell!

How to account for your fringe picks

So you picked sinatraa, and your bench is chock full of players that are negative or near zero performers like Xushu or Cwoosh. Maybe you picked TviQ or Hydration and it seems like your DPS aren’t going to be doing well. You can help yourself not get too deep by doing two things, diversifying the team pool from which your roster plays. If you have some shanghai players and they’re up against the powerhouse that is Seoul, try and keep them out of your lineup, if your players’ team is losing the games they’re in, they’re earning fewer points. In every matchup thus far the team that won a game earned more points among their players than the team that lost and it’s very unlikely that this will change as time passes. If your roster has a divers team pool that it draws from, try not to pick counterproductive to the match-ups.

If your roster is full of people that get subbed in and aren’t starters, try and mix in a few players from teams with smaller rosters. A Mayhem DPS pick may not earn as many points as IDDQD would, but a Mayhem DPS player will ALWAYS be playing, whereas IDDQD will likely sit out fairly often. The Gladiators have one spare DPS player, and all of their players saw gametime in their first match making any of their players a solid pick if you need some consistently deployed players in your starting lineup.

Takeaways

  • It’s still early and a lot players haven’t seen game time yet
  • Flex has likely been undervalued by your league
  • Good Tanks have the potential to outperform middling DPS
  • Support is the worst category and the best you should hope for with them is an above 0 performance
  • Individual performance is far more important than team performance but they are closely related