Effective Damage Theory

Posted by at October 17th

Overwatch is a relatively very new game and therefore analysis has been somewhat scattered so far. I am writing this piece not to answer any incredibly interesting niche issue of Overwatch, but rather to lay down a broad principle which can be a lense to view a wide variety of situations. This can provide a … Continue reading “Effective Damage Theory”


Sideshow Wins Contenders Season 1 Predictions

Posted by at October 12th

Contender’s Season 1 is over and the clock has run out for any comebacks. Here are the standings for our analysts by week, followed by our overall season weight if we were to make future contenders predictions, the statistical significance of not achieving higher rank in the competition and a general measure of average performance. … Continue reading “Sideshow Wins Contenders Season 1 Predictions”


Contenders Playoff Predictions

Posted by at October 05th

Welcome back after our break! This weekend will be exciting and I’ll lead off with our predictions for placements at the end of the season. Here is our aggregate prediction for North America and Europe. In both regions, there is plenty of uncertainty moving into this playoff weekend with EnVyUs and Misfits being favorites going into … Continue reading “Contenders Playoff Predictions”


Sideshow did it! Contenders Predictions Week 6

Posted by at September 21st

This week tests my character to continue to write an article after getting the wind knocked out of me. “To put it shortly, this week has been by far the most uncomfortable to predict. Many of these matchups made me physically uncomfortable to consider.” was what I had to say last week looking forward to … Continue reading “Sideshow did it! Contenders Predictions Week 6”


Contenders Predictions Week 5

Posted by at September 14th

After an exciting weekend, the field has split into three spots with Barroi, Volamel and myself nearly tied up at the top of the standings, Sideshow and Yiska remaining very competitive moving into the season, and then SmeG, YungBoop, Moirai and Coin Flip at the back of the pack. You can find our previous prediction … Continue reading “Contenders Predictions Week 5”


Contenders Predictions Week 4

Posted by at September 07th

Reviewing Week 3 Results: After last week’s results, standings have once again undergone a major shuffle. The “Significance” is the probability that a player would be at ranking or lower at this point in the competition if the analysts odds were correct. For example, the chance I would be in first place after the first two … Continue reading “Contenders Predictions Week 4”


Contenders Predictions Week 3

Posted by at August 31st

With events playing out after the first week of predictions, I can already tell that temperatures are rising among our group. After last week’s predictions (you can find it here), we already have major separation in the standing of our group of analysts. The weights below are determined based on how likely last weeks results … Continue reading “Contenders Predictions Week 3”


Contenders Predictions Week 2

Posted by at August 25th

Alright! Week 1 of Contenders is over so we have SOME idea of what form teams are in going into this season. Participating in this event are Winston’s Lab associates YungBoop, Barroi, Yiska, SmeG, myself (Eden), Moirai, Volamel and two special guests. First, Sideshow is going from the amateur prediction circuit on the Contenders analyst … Continue reading “Contenders Predictions Week 2”


What Power do Statistics Have in Overwatch?

Posted by at August 16th

Winstonslab is gratified by the presence it has gained as a result of the hard work those who contribute to it have done to make it interesting and useful for a broad range of purposes and users. With this exposure, it has arose many of the problems generally associated with public debates over data and … Continue reading “What Power do Statistics Have in Overwatch?”


Interpreting APEX Match Predictions

Posted by at July 03rd

In my original post, I made a brief statement on how to use APEX model predictions. I left this section deliberately brief since it is not easy to come up with hypothetical questions to pose without first knowing what questions will rise in significance. I’m going to split this into three parts: evaluating the how predictive the … Continue reading “Interpreting APEX Match Predictions”


Introducing APEX Match Predictions

Posted by at June 26th

Overwatch is a game always in flux. We do not have strong history to draw upon to understand the rise and fall of professional teams and the patterns of performance over time. Because of this, the thought of building a model predicting what will happen next seems foolish! It may be, but we will not … Continue reading “Introducing APEX Match Predictions”