OWL | Stage 1 Predictions - Winston's Lab

OWL | Stage 1 Predictions

Participants: 2357

Previous 100 Places: 383-482 Next 100
Rank User Average Probability Observed
367 Clusterferno 0.5205
367 darnell03 0.5205
367 Diccboyardee 0.5205
367 genghis tr0n 0.5205
367 IIdol 0.5205
367 jordsport 0.5205
367 koda141 0.5205
367 MattLayt0 0.5205
367 sek 0.5205
367 Skeijrex 0.5205
367 TimeBBY 0.5205
367 Dorset2003@btinternet.com 0.5205
367 anuph 0.5205
367 hajabeg 0.5205
367 Logic_ 0.5205
367 philco 0.5205
367 r3mmiZ 0.5205
367 Solo468 0.5205
401 shortrug 0.5205
401 whompfan 0.5205
401 LachyLurr28 0.5205
401 raspdere 0.5205
401 GinkoPC 0.5205
406 Benhomin1 0.5202
407 VentusLeonidas 0.5202
408 AlephNull 0.5202
409 wanderingstars 0.5202
410 Jeremy8138 0.5201
411 the_barryman 0.5199
412 BrendanM74 0.5198
413 Rhumé 0.5198
414 Suisquid 0.5197
415 goldiefinch 0.5196
416 Jin7997 0.5195
417 teashoppe 0.5193
418 Speeed 0.5192
418 Gibbygibson13 0.5192
418 Colbee 0.5192
418 Skialykos 0.5192
422 googlyeyes 0.5192
423 PHNTM 0.5192
424 UnSuperior 0.5192
425 subliminal17 0.5191
426 jmoff1234 0.519
427 relowx 0.5189
428 Matthew_Fitch29 0.5189
429 jeedis 0.5188
430 Epho 0.5188
431 hamadisdaddy 0.5186
432 cynicall 0.5181
433 bigman 0.5181
434 miEM 0.518
435 Lightningkid11 0.518
436 D3L 0.5178
437 TheSmith777 0.5177
438 mcsj120 0.5177
439 SaltyJosh 0.5177
440 Maths 0.5177
441 Chxzz 0.5176
442 BakingToucan 0.5176
442 Krunch 0.5176
442 Wadsy 0.5176
442 Fedario 0.5176
442 Froboy 0.5176
442 Neurofey 0.5176
442 Spence 0.5176
442 h4mmyy 0.5176
442 HotCoffee 0.5176
442 bagz 0.5176
442 Cosi 0.5176
442 Follidus 0.5176
442 Jeps 0.5176
442 vorble 0.5176
442 wjomlex 0.5176
442 Revolve 0.5176
458 Vermillion 0.5174
459 ewolfblue 0.5173
460 Babemax 0.5173
461 llLa Mangouste 0.5173
462 Druiman 0.5171
463 morphjin 0.5171
464 quantumforce 0.517
465 miniyeol 0.5168
466 syd 0.5166
467 Recks 0.5166
468 Kalisynth 0.5166
469 Jarjr315 0.5165
470 Kai_phillips18 0.5164
471 Makaiei 0.5162
472 sam_steiger 0.5162
473 urkel81 0.5161
474 hwari 0.5159
474 rydarus 0.5159
474 Slaxxi 0.5159
474 CanadianBacon 0.5159
474 Waniou 0.5159
474 Bloodfallen 0.5159
474 renax2 0.5159
474 thewrightspot 0.5159
482 ElectricityEra 0.5158
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Comments
astorya 2676 days ago quote
lets go dood
lukeyowo 2676 days ago quote
pog
edenfoley 2676 days ago quote
lets go dood


get wrecked
Lordedwardthe5th 2676 days ago quote
Doing OK so far, good luck to all!
Monarus_OW 2676 days ago quote
Thank you. Good luck to you too. My current record is 5-2 and rank is 132!!!.
Monarus_OW 2676 days ago quote
Thank you. Good luck to you too. My current record is 5-2 and rank is 132!!!.
edenfoley 2676 days ago quote
win this competition and you get an OWL job, just remember
Elongated Muskrat 2676 days ago quote
man i got f'd by that last match
too many eggs in a basket
edenfoley 2676 days ago quote
man i got f'd by that last match
too many eggs in a basket

You went all in with your life game after game hoping not to roll a 1 lol
Elongated Muskrat 2676 days ago quote
man i got f'd by that last match
too many eggs in a basket

You went all in with your life game after game hoping not to roll a 1 lol
yeah I went full pepega trying to catch up
Erbs 2676 days ago quote
Anyone who's ranked high off of a 99% pick on Defiant or Hunters should be ashamed lol. It seems weird when a match goes to game 5 and could genuinely go to a coin flip at the end could give value in prediction ratings when it was clearly unreasonable to be that sure.
post_amerika 2675 days ago quote
@Erbs It's fine. The sample size is large enough where guesses like those will even out.
Monarus_OW 2675 days ago quote
@Erbs It's fine. The sample size is large enough where guesses like those will even out.
Agreed. Though I got screwed by it too lmao.
Alazn02 2674 days ago quote
Holy shit I’m lucky. 66th even though I don’t even know all of the rosters.
Nicbudd 2674 days ago quote
I've made a program that ranks all the teams, and so far it has an APO of 0.5937. Let's see what it does...
taiito 2674 days ago quote
why hasn't my APO changed after 2 games predicted?
haiir 2674 days ago quote
I'm guessing it updates at the end of the day.
edenfoley 2674 days ago quote
Updates when Barroi puts results in
zinnin 2674 days ago quote
Oof
edenfoley 2674 days ago quote
Oof
haha
Erbs 2674 days ago quote
I initially had Fuel bouncing back but then I let logic get in the way, curse you common sense! Dynasty beat Gladiators, Gladiators beat Shock, and Shock killed Fuel, therefore Dynasty should also destroy Fuel... Right? lol
morphjin 2673 days ago quote
at the start of the weekend i had Dallas beating Shock and losing to Seoul, tipped Dallas after we got smashed to Shock. I have no idea why as well lol.
Kog 2673 days ago quote
poggers wheres my job in owl
edenfoley 2673 days ago quote
poggers wheres my job in owl
We'll see at the end of the season bro
Monarus_OW 2672 days ago quote
Does anyone have a clue how Winston’s Lab calculates average probability observed because the average percentage I picked for the teams that won is 60.875%, but my APO is somehow 0.3723?!
edenfoley 2672 days ago quote
Does anyone have a clue how Winston’s Lab calculates average probability observed because the average percentage I picked for the teams that won is 60.875%, but my APO is somehow 0.3723?!
Yes, it multiplies the probability of every outcome (so if you predict 95% on a team and they lose it's 5%) and then take that to the 1/#games power. Basically, how likely on average observations have been so far.
Monarus_OW 2672 days ago quote
Thank you.
Canadianwaldo 2670 days ago quote
LONDON LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL
Canadianwaldo 2670 days ago quote
idk how to report a bug but for some reason all the games were resolved randomly so everyone is at like 50 percent lol
edenfoley 2670 days ago quote
idk how to report a bug but for some reason all the games were resolved randomly so everyone is at like 50 percent lol
Yeah I've messaged Barroi about it, it's a bug and will be fixed
edenfoley 2670 days ago quote
saved!
Nicbudd 2670 days ago quote
Woaj how the hecc am I 11th?
Nicbudd 2670 days ago quote
Oh now I'm not 11th haha
edenfoley 2670 days ago quote
poggers wheres my job in owl
HAHAHAHA
vowels 2670 days ago quote
eden toxic wtf
haiir 2670 days ago quote
why have only 2 games been updated from today?
Kog 2670 days ago quote
poggers wheres my job in owl
HAHAHAHA
damn that all went to shit innit
felipe798 2669 days ago quote
damn i predicted 99% for philly rip
Lordedwardthe5th 2669 days ago quote
When the person on top forgot to pick the Philly/Florida game......
edenfoley 2669 days ago quote
When the person on top forgot to pick the Philly/Florida game......
happens 100% of the time...
bensosim 2669 days ago quote
Lmao how is anyone supposed to actually predict this stuff the 18th place team just beat the second place team XD
Lordedwardthe5th 2669 days ago quote
goats is a skills based meta
edenfoley 2668 days ago quote
https://twitter.com/EdenIsaacFoley/status/1099200979503902720
Nicbudd 2668 days ago quote
This week I went from 11th place to 1139th. Big oof.
bensosim 2668 days ago quote
This week I went from 11th place to 1139th. Big oof.
I went from 74th to 1460th, these upsets are screwing everyone.
Trinitrine 2667 days ago quote
Does anyone have a clue how Winston’s Lab calculates average probability observed because the average percentage I picked for the teams that won is 60.875%, but my APO is somehow 0.3723?!
Yes, it multiplies the probability of every outcome (so if you predict 95% on a team and they lose it's 5%) and then take that to the 1/#games power. Basically, how likely on average observations have been so far.


Yes I think it's something like that I just changed all my predictions to 99%/1% and my rank shot up from 23rd to 1st with just the 4 games of saturday
Kog 2667 days ago quote
This week I went from 11th place to 1139th. Big oof.
I went from 74th to 1460th, these upsets are screwing everyone.
went from 1st to 595th im not having a good time
edenfoley 2667 days ago Edited: 2667 days ago quote
Give some wisdom to Trinitrine Kog
Erbs 2667 days ago quote
went from 1st to 595th im not having a good time
I can't stop laughing at this lmao
felipe 2667 days ago quote
that goddamn philly vs mayhem match
Bluesean12 2667 days ago quote
Everyone in the top 100 are the people who forgot to input predictions for week 2...
edenfoley 2667 days ago quote
Everyone in the top 100 are the people who forgot to input predictions for week 2...
Always happens on the back of upsets. They always fall.
Monarus_OW 2667 days ago quote
Lmao I went from like 100th to 1300th in one day because I didn’t understand the formula and now I’m 1800th because I keep trying to catch up and falling victim to the upsets.
Lylem 2666 days ago quote
Imagine being last
edenfoley 2666 days ago quote
The formula is designed not to be gameable in long run lol. The optimal prediction in the long run for any match is its actual probability.
gizmomcs 2664 days ago quote
so for this season with all the upsets, i guess you can just go for 50/50 and then 99 for the game you are really sure and be first xD
edenfoley 2663 days ago quote
so for this season with all the upsets, i guess you can just go for 50/50 and then 99 for the game you are really sure and be first xD
nahhh
Roserade 2662 days ago quote
Philly week 2 killed me
goo_rat 2662 days ago quote
fuck i'm a terrible guesser lmao
Alazn02 2662 days ago quote
Oh hey I’m back in the top 100
haiir 2662 days ago quote
When will today's games update?
haiir 2662 days ago Edited: 2662 days ago quote
edenfoley 2661 days ago quote
When Barroi stops moping around
bensosim 2661 days ago Edited: 2661 days ago quote
Do they take out people who haven't done a lot of predictions so you can see where you are against the other people who actually predicted
edenfoley 2661 days ago quote
Do they take out people who haven't done a lot of predictions so you can see where you are against the other people who actually predicted
they'll keep predicting .5 and fall. they'll fall out next stage though
apy 2661 days ago quote
didn't expect to get 1st... lol
apy 2660 days ago quote
@sideshow don't at me Kappa
edenfoley 2660 days ago quote
didn't expect to get 1st... lol
There have been 3 kings of the week bragging now before their fall
Shanepickle1 2659 days ago quote
back in top 1000 pogu
Pixelated_OW 2657 days ago quote
i thought id be lower than this tbh... top 10%... idk how that happened but ok
Kog 2656 days ago quote
didn't expect to get 1st... lol
There have been 3 kings of the week bragging now before their fall
it's a harsh life
LaurenceR 2654 days ago quote
watchpoint hasn't even started but the first game is locked already? well rip my prediction for that one then
apy 2654 days ago quote
@daliti why you copying my shit
edenfoley 2654 days ago quote
watchpoint hasn't even started but the first game is locked already? well rip my prediction for that one then
lol wonder if messed up Daylight savings time
Dalati 2653 days ago quote
@daliti why you copying my shit

@apy I don't! I made those predictions before stage 1 started when there was no leaderboards and I never changed them since.
bensosim 2652 days ago quote
If two teams who haven't played each other, like the Reign and Charge, tied in map differential and overall score but were tied for 7th meaning they're the bottom 2 playoff seeds, would a tiebreaker be played to decide which seed they are for the playoffs?
Parenegade 2650 days ago quote
Can you look up someone else's place in the standings?
Feskir 2649 days ago quote
If two teams who haven't played each other, like the Reign and Charge, tied in map differential and overall score but were tied for 7th meaning they're the bottom 2 playoff seeds, would a tiebreaker be played to decide which seed they are for the playoffs?


I believe they have to play 1 map against each other to determine seeding
edenfoley 2648 days ago quote
Can you look up someone else's place in the standings?
sadly there isn't a search feature, have to spend a couple minutes scrolling.
Michae1 2646 days ago quote
wow surprised i only dropped to 47 after boston reverse sweeping dallas, well time to fall further lul
bensosim 2643 days ago quote
When can we make predictions for playoff matches?
Proilios 2643 days ago quote
they haven't put up the playoff matches, dang
Puls0r2 2642 days ago quote
LMAO the brackets still arent ready and theres no way to vote for the playoffs. this is bad.
edenfoley 2642 days ago quote
looks like playoffs are out, 90% of people don't put them in as bracket fills in anyway.
LaurenceR 2641 days ago quote
That sucks, but after the Seoul win last night, maybe it's just as well that my predictions were saved
Proilios 2641 days ago quote
such a weird change
edenfoley 2641 days ago quote
I was telling Barroi to change it before and he was on the fence. Messing up the match order made the decision lol
wjomlex 2640 days ago quote
Did we just give up on doing playoff matches?
apy 2639 days ago quote
Guessing so. It's alright though, guys :) ggs to everyone this season.
edenfoley 2639 days ago quote
For everyone going into stage 2, the seasonal leaderboard banner will keep track of cumulative performance.