OWL | Stage 1 Predictions - Winston's Lab

OWL | Stage 1 Predictions

Participants: 2357

Previous 100 Places: 1401-1500 Next 100
Rank User Average Probability Observed
780 noahlium.bogue@gmail.com 0.5
780 silkdragon 0.5
780 TheOneEyesOWL 0.5
780 DaHubs901 0.5
780 Zack_Att4ck 0.5
780 Blacc 0.5
780 Icey 0.5
780 kishin 0.5
780 selkie 0.5
780 rakkez 0.5
780 mimalreis@gmail.com 0.5
780 Armaishere 0.5
780 Matty943 0.5
780 pray4chanka 0.5
780 Aeria 0.5
780 Studley ManCannon 0.5
780 airbellum 0.5
780 Cazer 0.5
780 CrossedOut 0.5
780 dash098 0.5
780 eskrals 0.5
780 gorogoi 0.5
780 Janniq 0.5
780 kennymunroe69@gmail.com 0.5
780 Lag00n 0.5
780 Mozgos 0.5
780 Noda 0.5
780 Polarised 0.5
780 rolyaT 0.5
780 Sinnabon 0.5
780 th0mas96 0.5
780 ultimo987 0.5
780 XboxOff 0.5
780 FFourHead 0.5
780 Sumoe 0.5
780 babo 0.5
780 Everything OWL 0.5
780 HermesRatatoskr 0.5
780 Luxray 0.5
780 Odie 0.5
780 Rennoc 0.5
780 zbencs 0.5
780 Aveno 0.5
780 D3KK0 0.5
780 h4ck3rjk 0.5
780 LuckyXD 0.5
780 prots0 0.5
780 SirFreg 0.5
780 nift 0.5
780 ELO 0.5
780 AngryTaiga 0.5
780 atropos 0.5
780 bobertwales 0.5
780 Cashade 0.5
780 eakesplayz@gmail.com 0.5
780 exquency 0.5
780 gchef 0.5
780 hamishshorrocks@gmail.com 0.5
780 JetLiTe 0.5
780 Krystal 0.5
780 Nakishima 0.5
780 OffTheMarx 0.5
780 Pewj 0.5
780 R1chard0b 0.5
780 Ruhok 0.5
780 seeya 0.5
780 Somboop 0.5
780 tehrebound@gmail.com 0.5
780 TrueHighGround 0.5
780 wwwwww 0.5
780 dustypharah 0.5
780 CanadianZenMain 0.5
780 colbyrocks19 0.5
780 EPHEBlC 0.5
780 UltraSeal 0.5
780 Wrynx 0.5
780 sphincter911 0.5
1478 Pikeminnow 0.5
1479 Teke 0.4999
1480 youlix 0.4998
1481 Barrosa 0.4998
1482 littlefirestar 0.4998
1483 etienne.badoche@orange.fr 0.4997
1484 AtheonsGrip 0.4997
1485 kotukan 0.4995
1486 adamzaman 0.4995
1487 spencer 0.4993
1488 Ezekielw 0.4992
1489 MXV 0.4991
1490 Vugson 0.4991
1491 hope 0.499
1492 Missie 0.4989
1493 ArseRobot 0.4988
1494 sargent.ryan02@gmail.com 0.4988
1494 JohnnyOW 0.4988
1494 CFiction 0.4988
1494 isd 0.4988
1498 DemoDomDom 0.4988
1499 AHALL2 0.4985
1500 bazz 0.4981
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Comments
astorya 2620 days ago quote
lets go dood
lukeyowo 2619 days ago quote
pog
edenfoley 2619 days ago quote
lets go dood


get wrecked
Lordedwardthe5th 2619 days ago quote
Doing OK so far, good luck to all!
Monarus_OW 2619 days ago quote
Thank you. Good luck to you too. My current record is 5-2 and rank is 132!!!.
Monarus_OW 2619 days ago quote
Thank you. Good luck to you too. My current record is 5-2 and rank is 132!!!.
edenfoley 2619 days ago quote
win this competition and you get an OWL job, just remember
Elongated Muskrat 2619 days ago quote
man i got f'd by that last match
too many eggs in a basket
edenfoley 2619 days ago quote
man i got f'd by that last match
too many eggs in a basket

You went all in with your life game after game hoping not to roll a 1 lol
Elongated Muskrat 2619 days ago quote
man i got f'd by that last match
too many eggs in a basket

You went all in with your life game after game hoping not to roll a 1 lol
yeah I went full pepega trying to catch up
Erbs 2619 days ago quote
Anyone who's ranked high off of a 99% pick on Defiant or Hunters should be ashamed lol. It seems weird when a match goes to game 5 and could genuinely go to a coin flip at the end could give value in prediction ratings when it was clearly unreasonable to be that sure.
post_amerika 2619 days ago quote
@Erbs It's fine. The sample size is large enough where guesses like those will even out.
Monarus_OW 2619 days ago quote
@Erbs It's fine. The sample size is large enough where guesses like those will even out.
Agreed. Though I got screwed by it too lmao.
Alazn02 2618 days ago quote
Holy shit I’m lucky. 66th even though I don’t even know all of the rosters.
Nicbudd 2618 days ago quote
I've made a program that ranks all the teams, and so far it has an APO of 0.5937. Let's see what it does...
taiito 2617 days ago quote
why hasn't my APO changed after 2 games predicted?
haiir 2617 days ago quote
I'm guessing it updates at the end of the day.
edenfoley 2617 days ago quote
Updates when Barroi puts results in
zinnin 2617 days ago quote
Oof
edenfoley 2617 days ago quote
Oof
haha
Erbs 2617 days ago quote
I initially had Fuel bouncing back but then I let logic get in the way, curse you common sense! Dynasty beat Gladiators, Gladiators beat Shock, and Shock killed Fuel, therefore Dynasty should also destroy Fuel... Right? lol
morphjin 2617 days ago quote
at the start of the weekend i had Dallas beating Shock and losing to Seoul, tipped Dallas after we got smashed to Shock. I have no idea why as well lol.
Kog 2617 days ago quote
poggers wheres my job in owl
edenfoley 2616 days ago quote
poggers wheres my job in owl
We'll see at the end of the season bro
Monarus_OW 2616 days ago quote
Does anyone have a clue how Winston’s Lab calculates average probability observed because the average percentage I picked for the teams that won is 60.875%, but my APO is somehow 0.3723?!
edenfoley 2615 days ago quote
Does anyone have a clue how Winston’s Lab calculates average probability observed because the average percentage I picked for the teams that won is 60.875%, but my APO is somehow 0.3723?!
Yes, it multiplies the probability of every outcome (so if you predict 95% on a team and they lose it's 5%) and then take that to the 1/#games power. Basically, how likely on average observations have been so far.
Monarus_OW 2615 days ago quote
Thank you.
Canadianwaldo 2613 days ago quote
LONDON LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL
Canadianwaldo 2613 days ago quote
idk how to report a bug but for some reason all the games were resolved randomly so everyone is at like 50 percent lol
edenfoley 2613 days ago quote
idk how to report a bug but for some reason all the games were resolved randomly so everyone is at like 50 percent lol
Yeah I've messaged Barroi about it, it's a bug and will be fixed
edenfoley 2613 days ago quote
saved!
Nicbudd 2613 days ago quote
Woaj how the hecc am I 11th?
Nicbudd 2613 days ago quote
Oh now I'm not 11th haha
edenfoley 2613 days ago quote
poggers wheres my job in owl
HAHAHAHA
vowels 2613 days ago quote
eden toxic wtf
haiir 2613 days ago quote
why have only 2 games been updated from today?
Kog 2613 days ago quote
poggers wheres my job in owl
HAHAHAHA
damn that all went to shit innit
felipe798 2613 days ago quote
damn i predicted 99% for philly rip
Lordedwardthe5th 2612 days ago quote
When the person on top forgot to pick the Philly/Florida game......
edenfoley 2612 days ago quote
When the person on top forgot to pick the Philly/Florida game......
happens 100% of the time...
bensosim 2612 days ago quote
Lmao how is anyone supposed to actually predict this stuff the 18th place team just beat the second place team XD
Lordedwardthe5th 2612 days ago quote
goats is a skills based meta
edenfoley 2612 days ago quote
https://twitter.com/EdenIsaacFoley/status/1099200979503902720
Nicbudd 2611 days ago quote
This week I went from 11th place to 1139th. Big oof.
bensosim 2611 days ago quote
This week I went from 11th place to 1139th. Big oof.
I went from 74th to 1460th, these upsets are screwing everyone.
Trinitrine 2611 days ago quote
Does anyone have a clue how Winston’s Lab calculates average probability observed because the average percentage I picked for the teams that won is 60.875%, but my APO is somehow 0.3723?!
Yes, it multiplies the probability of every outcome (so if you predict 95% on a team and they lose it's 5%) and then take that to the 1/#games power. Basically, how likely on average observations have been so far.


Yes I think it's something like that I just changed all my predictions to 99%/1% and my rank shot up from 23rd to 1st with just the 4 games of saturday
Kog 2611 days ago quote
This week I went from 11th place to 1139th. Big oof.
I went from 74th to 1460th, these upsets are screwing everyone.
went from 1st to 595th im not having a good time
edenfoley 2611 days ago Edited: 2611 days ago quote
Give some wisdom to Trinitrine Kog
Erbs 2611 days ago quote
went from 1st to 595th im not having a good time
I can't stop laughing at this lmao
felipe 2610 days ago quote
that goddamn philly vs mayhem match
Bluesean12 2610 days ago quote
Everyone in the top 100 are the people who forgot to input predictions for week 2...
edenfoley 2610 days ago quote
Everyone in the top 100 are the people who forgot to input predictions for week 2...
Always happens on the back of upsets. They always fall.
Monarus_OW 2610 days ago quote
Lmao I went from like 100th to 1300th in one day because I didn’t understand the formula and now I’m 1800th because I keep trying to catch up and falling victim to the upsets.
Lylem 2610 days ago quote
Imagine being last
edenfoley 2610 days ago quote
The formula is designed not to be gameable in long run lol. The optimal prediction in the long run for any match is its actual probability.
gizmomcs 2608 days ago quote
so for this season with all the upsets, i guess you can just go for 50/50 and then 99 for the game you are really sure and be first xD
edenfoley 2607 days ago quote
so for this season with all the upsets, i guess you can just go for 50/50 and then 99 for the game you are really sure and be first xD
nahhh
Roserade 2606 days ago quote
Philly week 2 killed me
goo_rat 2606 days ago quote
fuck i'm a terrible guesser lmao
Alazn02 2605 days ago quote
Oh hey I’m back in the top 100
haiir 2605 days ago quote
When will today's games update?
haiir 2605 days ago Edited: 2605 days ago quote
edenfoley 2605 days ago quote
When Barroi stops moping around
bensosim 2605 days ago Edited: 2605 days ago quote
Do they take out people who haven't done a lot of predictions so you can see where you are against the other people who actually predicted
edenfoley 2604 days ago quote
Do they take out people who haven't done a lot of predictions so you can see where you are against the other people who actually predicted
they'll keep predicting .5 and fall. they'll fall out next stage though
apy 2604 days ago quote
didn't expect to get 1st... lol
apy 2604 days ago quote
@sideshow don't at me Kappa
edenfoley 2604 days ago quote
didn't expect to get 1st... lol
There have been 3 kings of the week bragging now before their fall
Shanepickle1 2603 days ago quote
back in top 1000 pogu
Pixelated_OW 2600 days ago quote
i thought id be lower than this tbh... top 10%... idk how that happened but ok
Kog 2600 days ago quote
didn't expect to get 1st... lol
There have been 3 kings of the week bragging now before their fall
it's a harsh life
LaurenceR 2598 days ago quote
watchpoint hasn't even started but the first game is locked already? well rip my prediction for that one then
apy 2598 days ago quote
@daliti why you copying my shit
edenfoley 2598 days ago quote
watchpoint hasn't even started but the first game is locked already? well rip my prediction for that one then
lol wonder if messed up Daylight savings time
Dalati 2596 days ago quote
@daliti why you copying my shit

@apy I don't! I made those predictions before stage 1 started when there was no leaderboards and I never changed them since.
bensosim 2595 days ago quote
If two teams who haven't played each other, like the Reign and Charge, tied in map differential and overall score but were tied for 7th meaning they're the bottom 2 playoff seeds, would a tiebreaker be played to decide which seed they are for the playoffs?
Parenegade 2594 days ago quote
Can you look up someone else's place in the standings?
Feskir 2593 days ago quote
If two teams who haven't played each other, like the Reign and Charge, tied in map differential and overall score but were tied for 7th meaning they're the bottom 2 playoff seeds, would a tiebreaker be played to decide which seed they are for the playoffs?


I believe they have to play 1 map against each other to determine seeding
edenfoley 2592 days ago quote
Can you look up someone else's place in the standings?
sadly there isn't a search feature, have to spend a couple minutes scrolling.
Michae1 2590 days ago quote
wow surprised i only dropped to 47 after boston reverse sweeping dallas, well time to fall further lul
bensosim 2587 days ago quote
When can we make predictions for playoff matches?
Proilios 2586 days ago quote
they haven't put up the playoff matches, dang
Puls0r2 2585 days ago quote
LMAO the brackets still arent ready and theres no way to vote for the playoffs. this is bad.
edenfoley 2585 days ago quote
looks like playoffs are out, 90% of people don't put them in as bracket fills in anyway.
LaurenceR 2585 days ago quote
That sucks, but after the Seoul win last night, maybe it's just as well that my predictions were saved
Proilios 2585 days ago quote
such a weird change
edenfoley 2585 days ago quote
I was telling Barroi to change it before and he was on the fence. Messing up the match order made the decision lol
wjomlex 2584 days ago quote
Did we just give up on doing playoff matches?
apy 2583 days ago quote
Guessing so. It's alright though, guys :) ggs to everyone this season.
edenfoley 2582 days ago quote
For everyone going into stage 2, the seasonal leaderboard banner will keep track of cumulative performance.