OWL | Stage 1 Predictions - Winston's Lab

OWL | Stage 1 Predictions

Participants: 2357

Previous 100 Places: 1501-1600 Next 100
Rank User Average Probability Observed
1501 Bot 0.498
1502 shimadas 0.4979
1503 absolutelyclam 0.4979
1504 Kenobi 0.4978
1505 tonuchi 0.4975
1506 Vohalika 0.4974
1507 McCreepOW 0.4972
1508 Aoife 0.497
1509 adrianmoore528@gmail.com 0.4969
1509 jamescardoza1 0.4969
1509 TeSamp 0.4969
1509 Tomwa 0.4969
1509 Ur Third Cousin 0.4969
1509 dionysus 0.4969
1515 kagyu 0.4968
1516 swcw10 0.4968
1517 benjylxwang 0.4963
1518 sempiturtle 0.4959
1519 Solcrum 0.4959
1520 Greed 0.4957
1521 h2nq7kwu3d 0.4957
1522 Oglesbyyy 0.4957
1523 ThisIsntAlex 0.4956
1524 Kigg 0.4954
1525 sirdarcy99 0.4953
1526 dirone123 0.4951
1527 Stony_Tark 0.4951
1528 zoomamh 0.4949
1529 Numb3r 0.4949
1530 Sorren 0.4949
1531 Nitro 0.4949
1532 soundchecck 0.4947
1533 cy10246 0.4947
1534 Mykz 0.4946
1535 Acetooth 0.4945
1536 Shadowhorde 0.4944
1537 dstrct 0.4942
1538 The41647King 0.494
1539 dewdrinker14 0.4935
1539 hauras 0.4935
1539 jamescardoza07@gmail.com 0.4935
1539 malady 0.4935
1543 Krypto 0.4935
1543 sucrefucre 0.4935
1543 FlawlessAerial 0.4935
1543 Skaifyre 0.4935
1543 Arsene 0.4935
1543 TrickyZerg 0.4935
1543 Dillpickles 0.4935
1543 shanson@aysgarthschool.co.uk 0.4935
1551 mrsharpwax 0.4934
1552 Luculus 0.4934
1553 anamanaguchi 0.4933
1554 ImP12128 0.4932
1554 Viro 0.4932
1554 am4 0.4932
1557 bonenz 0.4931
1558 AVS55 0.4931
1559 SaltyLightning 0.493
1560 big_juicy_steak 0.4929
1561 Bootneck98 0.4929
1562 lemmykoopa755 0.4929
1563 samgoldstein27 0.4929
1564 BenOW 0.4928
1565 Auxillior 0.4928
1566 MooshuBeef 0.4928
1567 Merikat07 0.4927
1568 Snollzworth 0.4926
1569 yookob 0.4925
1570 hannanas 0.4925
1571 KikiDeliveryService 0.4925
1572 Stray 0.4924
1573 FreeLancer519 0.4924
1574 flanders 0.4924
1575 Austryker 0.4924
1576 Sunset 0.4922
1577 DasAnanas 0.4919
1578 Kewler 0.4918
1579 PoiPlexed 0.4918
1580 Duckyy 0.4917
1581 Faerukon 0.4917
1582 QJnHJ 0.4915
1583 Minipelz 0.4912
1584 Targrin 0.4911
1585 MindControled 0.4911
1586 LowenChikapow 0.491
1587 Socks_OW 0.4909
1588 Splinter 0.4907
1589 Covino 0.4907
1590 Perma2k 0.4906
1591 Jamzie 0.4905
1592 SkyeHigh 0.4905
1593 leggoeman 0.4904
1594 GroverTTC 0.4904
1595 p3rp 0.4904
1596 Ed_the_Ravioli 0.49
1597 ARthunder 0.49
1598 Lukay 0.4899
1599 Reyfin 0.4898
1600 HellBentRobin 0.4898
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Comments
astorya 2545 days ago quote
lets go dood
lukeyowo 2544 days ago quote
pog
edenfoley 2544 days ago quote
lets go dood


get wrecked
Lordedwardthe5th 2544 days ago quote
Doing OK so far, good luck to all!
Monarus_OW 2544 days ago quote
Thank you. Good luck to you too. My current record is 5-2 and rank is 132!!!.
Monarus_OW 2544 days ago quote
Thank you. Good luck to you too. My current record is 5-2 and rank is 132!!!.
edenfoley 2544 days ago quote
win this competition and you get an OWL job, just remember
Elongated Muskrat 2544 days ago quote
man i got f'd by that last match
too many eggs in a basket
edenfoley 2544 days ago quote
man i got f'd by that last match
too many eggs in a basket

You went all in with your life game after game hoping not to roll a 1 lol
Elongated Muskrat 2544 days ago quote
man i got f'd by that last match
too many eggs in a basket

You went all in with your life game after game hoping not to roll a 1 lol
yeah I went full pepega trying to catch up
Erbs 2544 days ago quote
Anyone who's ranked high off of a 99% pick on Defiant or Hunters should be ashamed lol. It seems weird when a match goes to game 5 and could genuinely go to a coin flip at the end could give value in prediction ratings when it was clearly unreasonable to be that sure.
post_amerika 2544 days ago quote
@Erbs It's fine. The sample size is large enough where guesses like those will even out.
Monarus_OW 2543 days ago quote
@Erbs It's fine. The sample size is large enough where guesses like those will even out.
Agreed. Though I got screwed by it too lmao.
Alazn02 2543 days ago quote
Holy shit I’m lucky. 66th even though I don’t even know all of the rosters.
Nicbudd 2542 days ago quote
I've made a program that ranks all the teams, and so far it has an APO of 0.5937. Let's see what it does...
taiito 2542 days ago quote
why hasn't my APO changed after 2 games predicted?
haiir 2542 days ago quote
I'm guessing it updates at the end of the day.
edenfoley 2542 days ago quote
Updates when Barroi puts results in
zinnin 2542 days ago quote
Oof
edenfoley 2542 days ago quote
Oof
haha
Erbs 2542 days ago quote
I initially had Fuel bouncing back but then I let logic get in the way, curse you common sense! Dynasty beat Gladiators, Gladiators beat Shock, and Shock killed Fuel, therefore Dynasty should also destroy Fuel... Right? lol
morphjin 2542 days ago quote
at the start of the weekend i had Dallas beating Shock and losing to Seoul, tipped Dallas after we got smashed to Shock. I have no idea why as well lol.
Kog 2541 days ago quote
poggers wheres my job in owl
edenfoley 2541 days ago quote
poggers wheres my job in owl
We'll see at the end of the season bro
Monarus_OW 2540 days ago quote
Does anyone have a clue how Winston’s Lab calculates average probability observed because the average percentage I picked for the teams that won is 60.875%, but my APO is somehow 0.3723?!
edenfoley 2540 days ago quote
Does anyone have a clue how Winston’s Lab calculates average probability observed because the average percentage I picked for the teams that won is 60.875%, but my APO is somehow 0.3723?!
Yes, it multiplies the probability of every outcome (so if you predict 95% on a team and they lose it's 5%) and then take that to the 1/#games power. Basically, how likely on average observations have been so far.
Monarus_OW 2540 days ago quote
Thank you.
Canadianwaldo 2538 days ago quote
LONDON LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL
Canadianwaldo 2538 days ago quote
idk how to report a bug but for some reason all the games were resolved randomly so everyone is at like 50 percent lol
edenfoley 2538 days ago quote
idk how to report a bug but for some reason all the games were resolved randomly so everyone is at like 50 percent lol
Yeah I've messaged Barroi about it, it's a bug and will be fixed
edenfoley 2538 days ago quote
saved!
Nicbudd 2538 days ago quote
Woaj how the hecc am I 11th?
Nicbudd 2538 days ago quote
Oh now I'm not 11th haha
edenfoley 2538 days ago quote
poggers wheres my job in owl
HAHAHAHA
vowels 2538 days ago quote
eden toxic wtf
haiir 2538 days ago quote
why have only 2 games been updated from today?
Kog 2538 days ago quote
poggers wheres my job in owl
HAHAHAHA
damn that all went to shit innit
felipe798 2538 days ago quote
damn i predicted 99% for philly rip
Lordedwardthe5th 2537 days ago quote
When the person on top forgot to pick the Philly/Florida game......
edenfoley 2537 days ago quote
When the person on top forgot to pick the Philly/Florida game......
happens 100% of the time...
bensosim 2537 days ago quote
Lmao how is anyone supposed to actually predict this stuff the 18th place team just beat the second place team XD
Lordedwardthe5th 2537 days ago quote
goats is a skills based meta
edenfoley 2537 days ago quote
https://twitter.com/EdenIsaacFoley/status/1099200979503902720
Nicbudd 2536 days ago quote
This week I went from 11th place to 1139th. Big oof.
bensosim 2536 days ago quote
This week I went from 11th place to 1139th. Big oof.
I went from 74th to 1460th, these upsets are screwing everyone.
Trinitrine 2536 days ago quote
Does anyone have a clue how Winston’s Lab calculates average probability observed because the average percentage I picked for the teams that won is 60.875%, but my APO is somehow 0.3723?!
Yes, it multiplies the probability of every outcome (so if you predict 95% on a team and they lose it's 5%) and then take that to the 1/#games power. Basically, how likely on average observations have been so far.


Yes I think it's something like that I just changed all my predictions to 99%/1% and my rank shot up from 23rd to 1st with just the 4 games of saturday
Kog 2535 days ago quote
This week I went from 11th place to 1139th. Big oof.
I went from 74th to 1460th, these upsets are screwing everyone.
went from 1st to 595th im not having a good time
edenfoley 2535 days ago Edited: 2535 days ago quote
Give some wisdom to Trinitrine Kog
Erbs 2535 days ago quote
went from 1st to 595th im not having a good time
I can't stop laughing at this lmao
felipe 2535 days ago quote
that goddamn philly vs mayhem match
Bluesean12 2535 days ago quote
Everyone in the top 100 are the people who forgot to input predictions for week 2...
edenfoley 2535 days ago quote
Everyone in the top 100 are the people who forgot to input predictions for week 2...
Always happens on the back of upsets. They always fall.
Monarus_OW 2535 days ago quote
Lmao I went from like 100th to 1300th in one day because I didn’t understand the formula and now I’m 1800th because I keep trying to catch up and falling victim to the upsets.
Lylem 2535 days ago quote
Imagine being last
edenfoley 2534 days ago quote
The formula is designed not to be gameable in long run lol. The optimal prediction in the long run for any match is its actual probability.
gizmomcs 2533 days ago quote
so for this season with all the upsets, i guess you can just go for 50/50 and then 99 for the game you are really sure and be first xD
edenfoley 2532 days ago quote
so for this season with all the upsets, i guess you can just go for 50/50 and then 99 for the game you are really sure and be first xD
nahhh
Roserade 2531 days ago quote
Philly week 2 killed me
goo_rat 2530 days ago quote
fuck i'm a terrible guesser lmao
Alazn02 2530 days ago quote
Oh hey I’m back in the top 100
haiir 2530 days ago quote
When will today's games update?
haiir 2530 days ago Edited: 2530 days ago quote
edenfoley 2530 days ago quote
When Barroi stops moping around
bensosim 2529 days ago Edited: 2529 days ago quote
Do they take out people who haven't done a lot of predictions so you can see where you are against the other people who actually predicted
edenfoley 2529 days ago quote
Do they take out people who haven't done a lot of predictions so you can see where you are against the other people who actually predicted
they'll keep predicting .5 and fall. they'll fall out next stage though
apy 2529 days ago quote
didn't expect to get 1st... lol
apy 2528 days ago quote
@sideshow don't at me Kappa
edenfoley 2528 days ago quote
didn't expect to get 1st... lol
There have been 3 kings of the week bragging now before their fall
Shanepickle1 2527 days ago quote
back in top 1000 pogu
Pixelated_OW 2525 days ago quote
i thought id be lower than this tbh... top 10%... idk how that happened but ok
Kog 2525 days ago quote
didn't expect to get 1st... lol
There have been 3 kings of the week bragging now before their fall
it's a harsh life
LaurenceR 2522 days ago quote
watchpoint hasn't even started but the first game is locked already? well rip my prediction for that one then
apy 2522 days ago quote
@daliti why you copying my shit
edenfoley 2522 days ago quote
watchpoint hasn't even started but the first game is locked already? well rip my prediction for that one then
lol wonder if messed up Daylight savings time
Dalati 2521 days ago quote
@daliti why you copying my shit

@apy I don't! I made those predictions before stage 1 started when there was no leaderboards and I never changed them since.
bensosim 2520 days ago quote
If two teams who haven't played each other, like the Reign and Charge, tied in map differential and overall score but were tied for 7th meaning they're the bottom 2 playoff seeds, would a tiebreaker be played to decide which seed they are for the playoffs?
Parenegade 2518 days ago quote
Can you look up someone else's place in the standings?
Feskir 2518 days ago quote
If two teams who haven't played each other, like the Reign and Charge, tied in map differential and overall score but were tied for 7th meaning they're the bottom 2 playoff seeds, would a tiebreaker be played to decide which seed they are for the playoffs?


I believe they have to play 1 map against each other to determine seeding
edenfoley 2517 days ago quote
Can you look up someone else's place in the standings?
sadly there isn't a search feature, have to spend a couple minutes scrolling.
Michae1 2515 days ago quote
wow surprised i only dropped to 47 after boston reverse sweeping dallas, well time to fall further lul
bensosim 2511 days ago quote
When can we make predictions for playoff matches?
Proilios 2511 days ago quote
they haven't put up the playoff matches, dang
Puls0r2 2510 days ago quote
LMAO the brackets still arent ready and theres no way to vote for the playoffs. this is bad.
edenfoley 2510 days ago quote
looks like playoffs are out, 90% of people don't put them in as bracket fills in anyway.
LaurenceR 2510 days ago quote
That sucks, but after the Seoul win last night, maybe it's just as well that my predictions were saved
Proilios 2510 days ago quote
such a weird change
edenfoley 2509 days ago quote
I was telling Barroi to change it before and he was on the fence. Messing up the match order made the decision lol
wjomlex 2508 days ago quote
Did we just give up on doing playoff matches?
apy 2507 days ago quote
Guessing so. It's alright though, guys :) ggs to everyone this season.
edenfoley 2507 days ago quote
For everyone going into stage 2, the seasonal leaderboard banner will keep track of cumulative performance.