OWL | Stage 1 Predictions - Winston's Lab

OWL | Stage 1 Predictions

Participants: 2357

Previous 100 Places: 1601-1700 Next 100
Rank User Average Probability Observed
1601 chronodota 0.4898
1602 DrunkyPanda 0.4897
1603 Vision 0.4896
1604 GetYoorLove 0.4896
1605 Pyndrogon 0.4896
1605 Creamy 0.4896
1607 yeahcandice 0.4895
1608 MrSlick 0.4895
1609 scubalk 0.4894
1610 showtime 0.4893
1611 Cassowary 0.4892
1612 Necross 0.4892
1613 matt54545 0.4892
1614 Roserade 0.489
1615 korpt 0.4889
1616 PbZeppelin42 0.4889
1617 BootyLLC 0.4888
1618 Barbarian14 0.4888
1619 Fiishhy 0.4887
1620 HydraChaos 0.4887
1621 dmiiit 0.4886
1622 Scorpion11 0.4885
1623 liamsyrv 0.4884
1624 IceFire 0.4884
1625 137lyons 0.4884
1626 Gravity 0.4883
1627 mysticalkiwis 0.4882
1628 zingsla 0.4881
1629 Hepburn 0.4877
1630 ChaosV3 0.4876
1631 zavecrave 0.4875
1632 MrAlex 0.4874
1633 ggglygy 0.4874
1634 SmashSquadd 0.4873
1635 Vaikael 0.4871
1636 ninho0o 0.487
1636 FullMetal 0.487
1638 Oblivious 0.487
1639 LtGaila 0.4869
1640 lucky1 0.4869
1641 Chriskade 0.4867
1642 jaeorks 0.4866
1643 Exeiji 0.4866
1644 DiurnalOwl 0.4866
1645 SneakyGrizzly 0.4865
1646 Cubic 0.4864
1647 moisture man 69 0.4864
1648 BigBoyBrad 0.4861
1649 blickebluck 0.4861
1650 Likzoh 0.4861
1651 SohCahToa 0.486
1652 BLURRY 0.4859
1653 BurlyJohnson 0.4858
1654 Tenta 0.4858
1655 TheShontman 0.4857
1656 StarfishCookie 0.4856
1657 TobbGoblin 0.4854
1658 Angus_Pro 0.4854
1659 XevinKex 0.4853
1660 Sasha 0.4852
1660 otiby66 0.4852
1662 Caidos101 0.4852
1662 kgullott@yahoo.com 0.4852
1662 Nostalgia 0.4852
1662 Herp 0.4852
1662 hermes1999 0.4852
1662 Fleegs 0.4852
1668 Failsafe 0.4852
1669 Rackoon 0.4851
1670 escobear 0.485
1671 ninjasttu 0.485
1672 Tempest_6505 0.4849
1673 Dakyukin 0.4848
1674 Carbon 0.4846
1675 Rabbit 0.4844
1676 Serd 0.4842
1677 Davidtayler97 0.4842
1678 Filurpolis 0.4842
1679 Sorin78 0.4841
1680 LadyEmaSKye 0.484
1681 tablo93 0.484
1682 ToxicWaffle 0.4836
1683 MuZhoKa 0.4834
1684 DrGalacto 0.4833
1685 Queen Blattaria 0.4831
1686 cristiadu 0.4828
1687 flam1ngoow 0.4826
1688 Boo Coup 0.4825
1689 BMGregory 0.4824
1690 weldbow 0.4822
1691 samuelbonham7@gmail.com 0.4822
1692 Arkyz66 0.4822
1693 kozy 0.482
1694 Coutchi 0.4818
1695 JumpingWalrus 0.4818
1696 Xeris 0.4817
1697 Jmesse 0.4814
1698 Libo 0.4813
1699 anthonystubb 0.4812
1700 jackthompson569@gmail.com 0.4811
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Comments
astorya 2545 days ago quote
lets go dood
lukeyowo 2544 days ago quote
pog
edenfoley 2544 days ago quote
lets go dood


get wrecked
Lordedwardthe5th 2544 days ago quote
Doing OK so far, good luck to all!
Monarus_OW 2544 days ago quote
Thank you. Good luck to you too. My current record is 5-2 and rank is 132!!!.
Monarus_OW 2544 days ago quote
Thank you. Good luck to you too. My current record is 5-2 and rank is 132!!!.
edenfoley 2544 days ago quote
win this competition and you get an OWL job, just remember
Elongated Muskrat 2544 days ago quote
man i got f'd by that last match
too many eggs in a basket
edenfoley 2544 days ago quote
man i got f'd by that last match
too many eggs in a basket

You went all in with your life game after game hoping not to roll a 1 lol
Elongated Muskrat 2544 days ago quote
man i got f'd by that last match
too many eggs in a basket

You went all in with your life game after game hoping not to roll a 1 lol
yeah I went full pepega trying to catch up
Erbs 2544 days ago quote
Anyone who's ranked high off of a 99% pick on Defiant or Hunters should be ashamed lol. It seems weird when a match goes to game 5 and could genuinely go to a coin flip at the end could give value in prediction ratings when it was clearly unreasonable to be that sure.
post_amerika 2544 days ago quote
@Erbs It's fine. The sample size is large enough where guesses like those will even out.
Monarus_OW 2544 days ago quote
@Erbs It's fine. The sample size is large enough where guesses like those will even out.
Agreed. Though I got screwed by it too lmao.
Alazn02 2543 days ago quote
Holy shit I’m lucky. 66th even though I don’t even know all of the rosters.
Nicbudd 2542 days ago quote
I've made a program that ranks all the teams, and so far it has an APO of 0.5937. Let's see what it does...
taiito 2542 days ago quote
why hasn't my APO changed after 2 games predicted?
haiir 2542 days ago quote
I'm guessing it updates at the end of the day.
edenfoley 2542 days ago quote
Updates when Barroi puts results in
zinnin 2542 days ago quote
Oof
edenfoley 2542 days ago quote
Oof
haha
Erbs 2542 days ago quote
I initially had Fuel bouncing back but then I let logic get in the way, curse you common sense! Dynasty beat Gladiators, Gladiators beat Shock, and Shock killed Fuel, therefore Dynasty should also destroy Fuel... Right? lol
morphjin 2542 days ago quote
at the start of the weekend i had Dallas beating Shock and losing to Seoul, tipped Dallas after we got smashed to Shock. I have no idea why as well lol.
Kog 2541 days ago quote
poggers wheres my job in owl
edenfoley 2541 days ago quote
poggers wheres my job in owl
We'll see at the end of the season bro
Monarus_OW 2540 days ago quote
Does anyone have a clue how Winston’s Lab calculates average probability observed because the average percentage I picked for the teams that won is 60.875%, but my APO is somehow 0.3723?!
edenfoley 2540 days ago quote
Does anyone have a clue how Winston’s Lab calculates average probability observed because the average percentage I picked for the teams that won is 60.875%, but my APO is somehow 0.3723?!
Yes, it multiplies the probability of every outcome (so if you predict 95% on a team and they lose it's 5%) and then take that to the 1/#games power. Basically, how likely on average observations have been so far.
Monarus_OW 2540 days ago quote
Thank you.
Canadianwaldo 2538 days ago quote
LONDON LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL
Canadianwaldo 2538 days ago quote
idk how to report a bug but for some reason all the games were resolved randomly so everyone is at like 50 percent lol
edenfoley 2538 days ago quote
idk how to report a bug but for some reason all the games were resolved randomly so everyone is at like 50 percent lol
Yeah I've messaged Barroi about it, it's a bug and will be fixed
edenfoley 2538 days ago quote
saved!
Nicbudd 2538 days ago quote
Woaj how the hecc am I 11th?
Nicbudd 2538 days ago quote
Oh now I'm not 11th haha
edenfoley 2538 days ago quote
poggers wheres my job in owl
HAHAHAHA
vowels 2538 days ago quote
eden toxic wtf
haiir 2538 days ago quote
why have only 2 games been updated from today?
Kog 2538 days ago quote
poggers wheres my job in owl
HAHAHAHA
damn that all went to shit innit
felipe798 2538 days ago quote
damn i predicted 99% for philly rip
Lordedwardthe5th 2537 days ago quote
When the person on top forgot to pick the Philly/Florida game......
edenfoley 2537 days ago quote
When the person on top forgot to pick the Philly/Florida game......
happens 100% of the time...
bensosim 2537 days ago quote
Lmao how is anyone supposed to actually predict this stuff the 18th place team just beat the second place team XD
Lordedwardthe5th 2537 days ago quote
goats is a skills based meta
edenfoley 2537 days ago quote
https://twitter.com/EdenIsaacFoley/status/1099200979503902720
Nicbudd 2536 days ago quote
This week I went from 11th place to 1139th. Big oof.
bensosim 2536 days ago quote
This week I went from 11th place to 1139th. Big oof.
I went from 74th to 1460th, these upsets are screwing everyone.
Trinitrine 2536 days ago quote
Does anyone have a clue how Winston’s Lab calculates average probability observed because the average percentage I picked for the teams that won is 60.875%, but my APO is somehow 0.3723?!
Yes, it multiplies the probability of every outcome (so if you predict 95% on a team and they lose it's 5%) and then take that to the 1/#games power. Basically, how likely on average observations have been so far.


Yes I think it's something like that I just changed all my predictions to 99%/1% and my rank shot up from 23rd to 1st with just the 4 games of saturday
Kog 2536 days ago quote
This week I went from 11th place to 1139th. Big oof.
I went from 74th to 1460th, these upsets are screwing everyone.
went from 1st to 595th im not having a good time
edenfoley 2535 days ago Edited: 2535 days ago quote
Give some wisdom to Trinitrine Kog
Erbs 2535 days ago quote
went from 1st to 595th im not having a good time
I can't stop laughing at this lmao
felipe 2535 days ago quote
that goddamn philly vs mayhem match
Bluesean12 2535 days ago quote
Everyone in the top 100 are the people who forgot to input predictions for week 2...
edenfoley 2535 days ago quote
Everyone in the top 100 are the people who forgot to input predictions for week 2...
Always happens on the back of upsets. They always fall.
Monarus_OW 2535 days ago quote
Lmao I went from like 100th to 1300th in one day because I didn’t understand the formula and now I’m 1800th because I keep trying to catch up and falling victim to the upsets.
Lylem 2535 days ago quote
Imagine being last
edenfoley 2534 days ago quote
The formula is designed not to be gameable in long run lol. The optimal prediction in the long run for any match is its actual probability.
gizmomcs 2533 days ago quote
so for this season with all the upsets, i guess you can just go for 50/50 and then 99 for the game you are really sure and be first xD
edenfoley 2532 days ago quote
so for this season with all the upsets, i guess you can just go for 50/50 and then 99 for the game you are really sure and be first xD
nahhh
Roserade 2531 days ago quote
Philly week 2 killed me
goo_rat 2530 days ago quote
fuck i'm a terrible guesser lmao
Alazn02 2530 days ago quote
Oh hey I’m back in the top 100
haiir 2530 days ago quote
When will today's games update?
haiir 2530 days ago Edited: 2530 days ago quote
edenfoley 2530 days ago quote
When Barroi stops moping around
bensosim 2529 days ago Edited: 2529 days ago quote
Do they take out people who haven't done a lot of predictions so you can see where you are against the other people who actually predicted
edenfoley 2529 days ago quote
Do they take out people who haven't done a lot of predictions so you can see where you are against the other people who actually predicted
they'll keep predicting .5 and fall. they'll fall out next stage though
apy 2529 days ago quote
didn't expect to get 1st... lol
apy 2528 days ago quote
@sideshow don't at me Kappa
edenfoley 2528 days ago quote
didn't expect to get 1st... lol
There have been 3 kings of the week bragging now before their fall
Shanepickle1 2528 days ago quote
back in top 1000 pogu
Pixelated_OW 2525 days ago quote
i thought id be lower than this tbh... top 10%... idk how that happened but ok
Kog 2525 days ago quote
didn't expect to get 1st... lol
There have been 3 kings of the week bragging now before their fall
it's a harsh life
LaurenceR 2522 days ago quote
watchpoint hasn't even started but the first game is locked already? well rip my prediction for that one then
apy 2522 days ago quote
@daliti why you copying my shit
edenfoley 2522 days ago quote
watchpoint hasn't even started but the first game is locked already? well rip my prediction for that one then
lol wonder if messed up Daylight savings time
Dalati 2521 days ago quote
@daliti why you copying my shit

@apy I don't! I made those predictions before stage 1 started when there was no leaderboards and I never changed them since.
bensosim 2520 days ago quote
If two teams who haven't played each other, like the Reign and Charge, tied in map differential and overall score but were tied for 7th meaning they're the bottom 2 playoff seeds, would a tiebreaker be played to decide which seed they are for the playoffs?
Parenegade 2519 days ago quote
Can you look up someone else's place in the standings?
Feskir 2518 days ago quote
If two teams who haven't played each other, like the Reign and Charge, tied in map differential and overall score but were tied for 7th meaning they're the bottom 2 playoff seeds, would a tiebreaker be played to decide which seed they are for the playoffs?


I believe they have to play 1 map against each other to determine seeding
edenfoley 2517 days ago quote
Can you look up someone else's place in the standings?
sadly there isn't a search feature, have to spend a couple minutes scrolling.
Michae1 2515 days ago quote
wow surprised i only dropped to 47 after boston reverse sweeping dallas, well time to fall further lul
bensosim 2511 days ago quote
When can we make predictions for playoff matches?
Proilios 2511 days ago quote
they haven't put up the playoff matches, dang
Puls0r2 2510 days ago quote
LMAO the brackets still arent ready and theres no way to vote for the playoffs. this is bad.
edenfoley 2510 days ago quote
looks like playoffs are out, 90% of people don't put them in as bracket fills in anyway.
LaurenceR 2510 days ago quote
That sucks, but after the Seoul win last night, maybe it's just as well that my predictions were saved
Proilios 2510 days ago quote
such a weird change
edenfoley 2509 days ago quote
I was telling Barroi to change it before and he was on the fence. Messing up the match order made the decision lol
wjomlex 2508 days ago quote
Did we just give up on doing playoff matches?
apy 2507 days ago quote
Guessing so. It's alright though, guys :) ggs to everyone this season.
edenfoley 2507 days ago quote
For everyone going into stage 2, the seasonal leaderboard banner will keep track of cumulative performance.